On February 10th, 2025, President Donald Trump announced he would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum that is imported into the United States and that it would go into full effect later this week, either as soon as the end of the week. As of Tuesday, February 11th, China is imposing retaliatory tariffs on approximately $14 billion worth of U.S. goods. These tariffs range from 10% to 15% and target products such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), coal, crude oil, farm equipment, and automotive goods. President Donald Trump, ‘on Saturday signed an executive order that imposes 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while adding a 10% levy (imposition) on goods from China. Canada responded hours later with retaliatory tariffs of its own, while Mexico said it was planning to issue tariffs on the U.S. as well.’
[RESPONSE]
Trump stated this new set of tariffs to reporters while traveling aboard Air Force One on Sunday to New Orleans, Louisiana for the Super Bowl. He quotes, ‘Any steel coming into the United States is going to have a 25% tariff, “ Trump told reporters, ”Aluminum too.” President Donald Trump states that these Tariffs – a 25% tax on imported steel and a 10% tax on imported aluminum –- are being implemented as reciprocal tariffs. Trump states: “Very simply, if they charge us, we charge them.” [1]
The imposition of these tariffs marks a significant shift in global trade policy with the United States, according to the World Bank data, the United States is the largest importer of aluminum in the world, sourcing this vital material from a variety of countries.[1]
Therefore, this development raises concerns about retaliatory actions from the nations affected and raises concerns on the possibility of a broader trade conflict between Mexico and the United States as earlier this month, a one-month pause on issuing 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico was announced — Trump states that these tariffs would be issued in response to drugs making their way from those countries into the United States.
These current developments highlight the escalating tensions in global trade and the potential for significant economic/political repercussions regarding the production and importation of goods on a global scale, not just steel and aluminum. Shares of U.S. steelmakers like Nucor and U.S. Steel rose between 4% and 7% while Century Aluminum saw a 13% increase. In regards to international producers and further response, shares of non-U.S. producers, such as ArcelorMittal and Hyundai Steel, declined due to concerns over disrupted supply chains and decreased demand — while the EU has expressed its intent to protect its interests but is awaiting more detailed information on the United States measures before deciding on specific actions. South Korea is also considering using the same measures to protect its steel industry in response to the United States tariffs. Overall, these tariffs are part of a broader strategy by the United States of America to address trade imbalances with countries that have significant trade excess with the U.S., including China and the European Union. [2]
If China and Russia do reduce their U.S. metal exports, groups like the Houthi rebels in Yemen militias in Syria, or the Junta in Myanmar — which receive Chinese-manufactured weapons or infrastructure materials– might experience storage or price increases.
When it comes to resource-based armed groups (oil, energy, metals) militants in Nigeria (Niger Delta), Yemen (Houthis), and Syria rely on oil and gas. Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria lost approximately 262 million barrels of crude oil due to measurement errors, sabotage, and production adjustments. [3] When it comes to the Houthi rebels – Iran generates billions of dollars in revenue annually through oil sales, which are funded by various regional groups, including the Houthis. [4] Myanmar’s military Junta and the country's ethnic militias have historically sourced military hardware and weapons from both China and Russia, however, it has been facing more resistance ever since the launch of Operation 1027 in October of 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising of the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). This operation aimed to counter the Myanmar junta’s military actions and has significantly impacted the ongoing conflict. [5]
Overall, tariffs can disrupt economies, not just cause destabilization in arms manufacturing and distribution but also open the opportunity for retaliation by other countries — possibly causing armed factions to adapt by increasing alternative funding, extortion, or smuggling.
Ultimately, trade wars can shift military supply chains, and higher tariffs on metals raise weapons production costs for militaries and armed factions. China and Russia, major arms suppliers, may however redirect their sales to allies, possibly strengthening proxy conflicts. For example, if China and or Russia restrict exports (e.g., steel, aluminum), demand for different arms markets may increase — whether through shifting alliances, illicit trade, or direct conflict escalation.
[1] Trump to announce 25% steel, aluminum tariffs on Monday - UPI.com
[1] US Aluminum Imports Data by Country: Importers & Buyers List - USImportData - US Import Export Data
[2] Trump raises tariffs on aluminum, steel imports in latest trade war salvo | Reuters
[3] Nigeria loses more than 362 million barrels of oil in ten years - Offshore Technology
[4] Treasury Targets Oil Network Generating Hundreds of Millions of Dollars for Iran’s Military | U.S. Department of the Treasury
[5] China Filling Huge Arms Order Placed by Myanmar Junta